Nuggets & Spurs: A 20-year portrait

Back in the Bicentennial year of 1976, four American Basketball Association squads -- the Denver Nuggets, San Antonio Spurs, New York Nets and Indiana Pacers -- were absorbed into the NBA.
Over the ensuing 18 seasons, none of the four managed to reach the NBA Finals, but two -- the Nuggets and Spurs -- clearly emerged as the class of the quartet, sporting Hall of Famers such as David Thompson, George Gervin, Dan Issel, David Robinson, Alex English and  Artis Gilmore while missing the playoffs only a combined eight times in 36 total seasons.
But in the 20 years since, let's just say the paths have diverged rather dramatically for the Nuggets and Spurs. Here's a tale of the tape of what's transpired for the two franchises over the past two decades (Warning, Nuggets fans, this isn't pretty):

• Winning seasons: Spurs 19, Nuggets 10
• 50-win seasons: Spurs 18, Nuggets 5
• 50-loss seasons: Nuggets 4, Spurs 1
• Playoff berths: Spurs 19, Nuggets 11
• Division titles: Spurs 13, Nuggets 3
• Playoff games: Spurs 264, Nuggets 67
• Playoff games won: Spurs 163, Nuggets 22
• Playoff series wins: Spurs 35, Nuggets 2
• Western Conference titles: Spurs 6, Nuggets 0
• NBA titles: Spurs 5, Nuggets 0
• Head coaches: Nuggets 11, Spurs 2
• All-Star Game selections: Spurs 28, Nuggets 11
• Regular season head-to-head wins: Spurs 63, Nuggets 25
• Postseason head-to-head wins: Spurs 13, Nuggets 2
• Top-20 draft picks: Nuggets 10, Spurs 2
• Top-five draft picks: Nuggets 4, Spurs 1
• All-NBA players drafted: Spurs 3, Nuggets 1 

Hey, just sayin' . . . 

Denver Nuggets can strike gold outside draft's top 10

Been awhile -- you know: road trips, family reunions and all that lazy, crazy summer stuff -- but I thought I'd check in and offer some hope for the Denver Nuggets' fans out there who feel the upcoming NBA Draft will be an exercise in futility with their squad without a top-10 pick.
Yeah, sure, having a little lottery luck and a top-three pick never hurts, but there are gems to mined later in the draft. In fact, there are likely more than you think.
I examined the 20 NBA drafts from 1992 to 2011, and some quick and dirty research reveals that 37 players selected outside of the top 10 -- or not even drafted at all -- have either gone on to play in an All-Star Game or have been named to an All-NBA team. The list ranges from Marc Gasol (48th in  2007) to Ron Artest (16th in 1999) to Manu Ginobili (57th in '99) to Kobe Bryant (13th in 1996) to Steve Nash (15th in '96).
Six of those 37 --  including the likes of Ginobili, Rajon Rondo (21st overall in 2006), Tony Parker (28th in 2001) and Sam Cassell (24th in 1993) -- have even gone on to play significant roles in NBA title-winning seasons with the team which selected them or traded for their selection rights on draft day.
A future All-Star or All-NBA selection has been selected outside of the top 10 in 16 of those 20 drafts from '92 to '11, with '94, '97, '10 and '11 currently being the exceptions. You didn't need to have passed trigonometry to figure out that's nearly an average of two mid-to-late round finds per draft.
Even in the second round -- where the Nuggets slated to pick 41st and 56th this year -- there are future finds to be had with seven of the aforementioned 37 having been selected 41st or later.
So even if the Nuggets don't trade up or somehow swing a monster deal for Kevin Love, there are draft nuggets to be uncovered outside of the top 10.
Now it's up to GM Tim Connelly and Co. to find them.

Another NBA Finals & no Nuggets . . . so what's new?

So it's the Spurs and Heat in the NBA Finals.
No surprise. We've been there, seen that matchup before.
It is the NBA after all where the chalk and the same teams dominate the action seemingly season after season.
To wit: Over the last 30 seasons, including the current one, only eight franchises have hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy with five teams (the Spurs, Heat, Lakers, Pistons and Bulls) winning a whopping 24 of the 30 (80 percent) championships.
Only 18 franchises have made NBA Finals appearances during those three decades, and as you well know your Denver Nuggets -- who joined the NBA in 1976 -- ain't one of them.
The Nuggets, in fact, are missing the party for the 38th consecutive season as one of the the seven current NBA franchises who have never made it to the Finals. The others are the Los Angeles Clippers (who joined the NBA as the Buffalo Braves in 1970), New Orleans Pelicans/Hornets/Charlotte Hornets ('88), Minnesota Timberwolves ('89), Memphis/Vancouver Grizzlies ('95), Toronto Raptors ('95) and Charlotte Hornets/Bobcats ('04).
Expanding the view to include all four major U.S. pro sports leagues, the Nuggets are one of 17 current franchises (out of 122 total or 13.9 percent) never to have made it to their current league's championship series or game.
The others, outside of the aforementioned NBA seven, are as follows:

• NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars (joined in 1995), Houston Texans ('02).
• MLB: Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos ('69), Seattle Mariners ('77)
• NHL: Phoenix Coyotes/Winnipeg Jets ('79), San Jose Sharks ('91), Nashville Predators ('98), Winnipeg Jets/Atlanta Thrashers ('99), Columbus Blue Jackets ('00), Minnesota Wild ('00)

A quick survey of those left-out 17 reveals that only the Nationals/Expos (45 years) and Clippers/Braves (44 years) have endured longer droughts than the Nuggets.

Sigh.

Draft lottery odds -- or past luck -- not on Nuggets' side

The NBA Draft Lottery ping-pong balls will align themselves and reveal the winning combinations in only two days, and your Denver Nuggets are hoping to beat the odds and buck history to earn a top-three pick -- all in one random confluence of four digits.
Contrary to some prominent published reports, though, the Nuggets' odds are not as slim as you might think. The Nugs do own the rights to the New York Knicks' first-round pick (if it turns out better than their own), and the combined odds give Denver a 1.5 percent chance to earn the No. 1 overall selection and a 5.4 percent shot of garnering a top-three pick.
Hey, still not great by any means, but it's better than their singular 0.8- and 2.9-percent chances after finishing with the 11th-worst record in the league.
To further gauge the Nuggets' lotto chances, we've examined the past 20 draft lotteries -- dating back to the institution of the current four-digit, 1,000-combination system in 1994 -- and here's what popped up (pun intended):

• First, some good news as amazingly only two of the past 20 lotteries (2003 & '04) have seen the team with the best odds (i.e. worst record) actually retain the No. 1 selection.
• Similarly, only two of the lotteries (1996 & 2012) have failed to see a team slotted outside the top three crash the party and earn one of the top trio of selections.
• In the meantime, a full half of the 20 lotteries have been won by teams slotted outside the top three. (It's actually 11 of 20 because the Vancouver Grizzlies, coming off their third season, weren't allowed to retain the top pick they were originally awarded in '98 due to previously agreed-upon expansion by-laws)
• However -- and here's where it really pertains to the Nuggets -- no team slotted lower than ninth has ever "won" the lottery and the top pick since the '94 restructuring, and only one double-digit-slotted franchise -- the '99 Charlotte Hornets, who turned the 13th-worst odds into the third-overall selection -- has ever garnered a top-three pick.
• Those Hornets are only of four teams in this 20-year span with lottery odds lower than or equal to the Nuggets' current 5.4-percent chance to prevail over probability and grab a spot in the top three. The others were the 2000 New Jersey Nets, who were awarded the No. 1 pick with the seventh-best odds, the 2008 Chicago Bulls, who turned the ninth-worst odds into the top pick and the 2011 Los Angeles Clippers who moved up from the eighth to No. 1. Their No. 1-selection rewards, in case you've forgotten, were Kenyon Martin, Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin, respectively.

Still, despite the roughly 1-in-20 odds, it must be said -- using the old probability fallacy -- that the Nuggets are "due" for reversal of fortune Tuesday night.

The franchise has been a part of nine lotteries since the system's inception in the mid-1980s, but they've either retained their draft slot (6 times) or been bumped down (3 times) each time, selecting no higher than third overall (twice).

Moreover, each of the three times the Nuggets were bumped, they had entered the process with the best odds (after posting the league's worst record) or had tied for the best odds. In 1991, they were bumped from the top pick down to fourth; in '98 they dropped from one to three and in 2003, they drew the third pick despite matching the Cleveland Cavaliers for the league's worst 2002-03 record.

The Cavs, of course, got LeBron James, and the Nuggets were fortunate enough to still land Carmelo Anthony at 3, which brings us full circle to the here and now and Tuesday night's lottery.

Good luck . . . 

Declining 21 wins, Nuggets' fall is 2nd-worst

Let's get this out of the way up front: The Denver Nuggets' 36-46 finish certainly wasn't a Laker-esque disaster (27-55, worst record since moving to L.A.), and it wasn't even one of the 10 worst single-season records in franchise history.
But the Nugs' first sub-.500, non-playoff season in more than a decade did mark the second-largest single-season decline in the franchise's 48 years.
In their history, the Nuggets have seen their win total drop 10 or more victories nine times from one season to the next. Only twice has the dropoff reached 20 or more wins, and in falling from a franchise-best 57-25 (.695) last season to 36-46, the 2013-14 squad's 21-game fall checks in solidly at No. 2 on the list.
The worst?Try Paul Westhead's lowlight of a debut season in the MIle High City as his 1990-91 crew finished 20-62 (.244) on the heels of a 43-39 (.524) campaign the year prior.
Ouch.
Still, Brian Shaw's injury-addled team wasn't far behind, losing 23 of its final 35 games to post the franchise's worst mark since the 17-65 embarrassment of 2002-03.
Those Nuggets wound up missing out on the LeBron James sweepstakes that summer but did wind up with the third overall pick in the draft and some cat named Carmelo.
These current Nugs should be so lucky.

Avs' turnaround turning heads

With six games remaining, the Colorado Avalanche are on the verge of making the biggest one-season turnaround in Colorado pro sports history.
We judge this by the teams' overall place in their respective league standings, and a year ago, the Avs were well on their way to compiling the second-worst record (16-25-7, 39 points) in the NHL. This year, Patrick Roy's kiddie crew currently owns the fifth-best mark (49-21-6, 104 points) in the league -- a whopping 24-place improvement.

Nuggets' streak halted

So for the first time since 2003, your Denver Nuggets will not be participating in the NBA Playoffs.
The Nuggets were eliminated from postseason contention earlier this week, ending a 10-year playoff run. Of course, that run didn't amount to much -- nine first-round exits and a trip to the Western Conference Finals in 2009 -- but then again would you rather have the run of eight straight seasons without a playoff game, as the Nuggets endured from '96 to '03?