Contrary to some prominent published reports, though, the Nuggets' odds are not as slim as you might think. The Nugs do own the rights to the New York Knicks' first-round pick (if it turns out better than their own), and the combined odds give Denver a 1.5 percent chance to earn the No. 1 overall selection and a 5.4 percent shot of garnering a top-three pick.
Hey, still not great by any means, but it's better than their singular 0.8- and 2.9-percent chances after finishing with the 11th-worst record in the league.
To further gauge the Nuggets' lotto chances, we've examined the past 20 draft lotteries -- dating back to the institution of the current four-digit, 1,000-combination system in 1994 -- and here's what popped up (pun intended):
- First, some good news as amazingly only two of the past 20 lotteries (2003 & '04) have seen the team with the best odds (i.e. worst record) actually retain the No. 1 selection.
- Similarly, only two of the lotteries (1996 & 2012) have failed to see a team slotted outside the top three crash the party and earn one of the top trio of selections.
- In the meantime, a full half of the 20 lotteries have been won by teams slotted outside the top three. (It's actually 11 of 20 because the Vancouver Grizzlies, coming off their third season, weren't allowed to retain the top pick they were originally awarded in '98 due to previously agreed-upon expansion by-laws)
- However -- and here's where it really pertains to the Nuggets -- no team slotted lower than ninth has ever "won" the lottery and the top pick since the '94 restructuring, and only one double-digit-slotted franchise -- the '99 Charlotte Hornets, who turned the 13th-worst odds into the third-overall selection -- has ever garnered a top-three pick.
- Those Hornets are only of four teams in this 20-year span with lottery odds lower than or equal to the Nuggets' current 5.4-percent chance to prevail over probability and grab a spot in the top three. The others were the 2000 New Jersey Nets, who were awarded the No. 1 pick with the seventh-best odds, the 2008 Chicago Bulls, who turned the ninth-worst odds into the top pick and the 2011 Los Angeles Clippers who moved up from the eighth to No. 1. Their No. 1-selection rewards, in case you've forgotten, were Kenyon Martin, Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin, respectively.
Still, despite the roughly 1-in-20 odds, it must be said -- using the old probability fallacy -- that the Nuggets are "due" for reversal of fortune Tuesday night.
The franchise has been a part of nine lotteries since the system's inception in the mid-1980s, but they've either retained their draft slot (6 times) or been bumped down (3 times) each time, selecting no higher than third overall (twice).
Moreover, each of the three times the Nuggets were bumped, they had entered the process with the best odds (after posting the league's worst record) or had tied for the best odds. In 1991, they were bumped from the top pick down to fourth; in '98 they dropped from one to three and in 2003, they drew the third pick despite matching the Cleveland Cavaliers for the league's worst 2002-03 record.
The Cavs, of course, got LeBron James, and the Nuggets were fortunate enough to still land Carmelo Anthony at 3, which brings us full circle to the here and now and Tuesday night's lottery.
Good luck . . .
