Friday, January 9, 2015

Dominant home teams threaten end of 9-year NFL playoff streak

Not only are the home teams in the NFL's divisional round all expected to win this weekend, but for only the third time in the last two decades, all four opened as favorites of six or more points.
Three are still favored by a touchdown or more, including your Denver Broncos -- a seven-point pick Sunday afternoon against the visiting Colts. Meanwhile, the Patriots are also favored by a TD over the Ravens, the defending-champion Seahawks are 11.5-point favorites against the Panthers and the Packers are now down to a 5.5-point pick against the Cowboys at Lambeau.
But the question is -- as it always is leading into the best weekend on the NFL calendar -- which one of the top four seeds is going down?
Since the league adopted its current 12-team playoff format in 1990 -- where the No. 1 and 2 seeds receive bye weeks followed by home games in the divisional round -- the home teams are a combined 70-26 (.729) in the conference semifinals. However, 15 of those 26 losses have come in the last nine seasons as the No. 1 and 2 seeds are a combined 21-15 (.583) since 2005.
In fact, at least one home team has lost in the divisional round in each of the last nine seasons, with the 2013 Panthers serving as most recent example in their 23-10 home loss to the 49ers a year ago.
The other No. 1- or No. 2-seeded victims during the span were -- sorry to dredge up the unpleasantness, Broncos Country -- the 2012 Orange and Blue, 2011 Packers, 2010 Patriots and Falcons, 2009 Chargers, 2008 Titans, Giants and Panthers, 2007 Colts and Cowboys, 2006 Chargers and Ravens and the '05 Colts and Bears.
One Peyton Manning, as you may have noticed, quarterbacked three of those 15 teams.
But is this the season the run ends?
Both No. 2 seeds, the Broncos and Pack, went 8-0 at home during the regular season, and the Patriots and Seahawks were both 7-1, adding up to an impressive 30-2 total. And that, mind you, includes New England's Week 17 loss to Bills in which the Pats had already wrapped up the AFC's top seed and rested a number of regulars.
After all, when you're talking NFL home-field advantage, Foxborough, Seattle, Green Bay and the Mile High City should start almost every conversation.
But will one if the visitors be able spring an upset?
This year, that question is more intriguing than ever on the best weekend on the NFL calendar.

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