Draft lottery odds -- or past luck -- not on Nuggets' side

The NBA Draft Lottery ping-pong balls will align themselves and reveal the winning combinations in only two days, and your Denver Nuggets are hoping to beat the odds and buck history to earn a top-three pick -- all in one random confluence of four digits.
Contrary to some prominent published reports, though, the Nuggets' odds are not as slim as you might think. The Nugs do own the rights to the New York Knicks' first-round pick (if it turns out better than their own), and the combined odds give Denver a 1.5 percent chance to earn the No. 1 overall selection and a 5.4 percent shot of garnering a top-three pick.
Hey, still not great by any means, but it's better than their singular 0.8- and 2.9-percent chances after finishing with the 11th-worst record in the league.
To further gauge the Nuggets' lotto chances, we've examined the past 20 draft lotteries -- dating back to the institution of the current four-digit, 1,000-combination system in 1994 -- and here's what popped up (pun intended):

• First, some good news as amazingly only two of the past 20 lotteries (2003 & '04) have seen the team with the best odds (i.e. worst record) actually retain the No. 1 selection.
• Similarly, only two of the lotteries (1996 & 2012) have failed to see a team slotted outside the top three crash the party and earn one of the top trio of selections.
• In the meantime, a full half of the 20 lotteries have been won by teams slotted outside the top three. (It's actually 11 of 20 because the Vancouver Grizzlies, coming off their third season, weren't allowed to retain the top pick they were originally awarded in '98 due to previously agreed-upon expansion by-laws)
• However -- and here's where it really pertains to the Nuggets -- no team slotted lower than ninth has ever "won" the lottery and the top pick since the '94 restructuring, and only one double-digit-slotted franchise -- the '99 Charlotte Hornets, who turned the 13th-worst odds into the third-overall selection -- has ever garnered a top-three pick.
• Those Hornets are only of four teams in this 20-year span with lottery odds lower than or equal to the Nuggets' current 5.4-percent chance to prevail over probability and grab a spot in the top three. The others were the 2000 New Jersey Nets, who were awarded the No. 1 pick with the seventh-best odds, the 2008 Chicago Bulls, who turned the ninth-worst odds into the top pick and the 2011 Los Angeles Clippers who moved up from the eighth to No. 1. Their No. 1-selection rewards, in case you've forgotten, were Kenyon Martin, Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin, respectively.

Still, despite the roughly 1-in-20 odds, it must be said -- using the old probability fallacy -- that the Nuggets are "due" for reversal of fortune Tuesday night.

The franchise has been a part of nine lotteries since the system's inception in the mid-1980s, but they've either retained their draft slot (6 times) or been bumped down (3 times) each time, selecting no higher than third overall (twice).

Moreover, each of the three times the Nuggets were bumped, they had entered the process with the best odds (after posting the league's worst record) or had tied for the best odds. In 1991, they were bumped from the top pick down to fourth; in '98 they dropped from one to three and in 2003, they drew the third pick despite matching the Cleveland Cavaliers for the league's worst 2002-03 record.

The Cavs, of course, got LeBron James, and the Nuggets were fortunate enough to still land Carmelo Anthony at 3, which brings us full circle to the here and now and Tuesday night's lottery.

Good luck . . . 

CU's slide reflected in NFL Draft decline

Putting a bow on the NFL Draft, here's a quick University of Colorado note.
CU's recent downturn in fortune -- no bowl appearances or winning seasons over the last six seasons (2008-13) -- is mirrored in its draft fortunes of late. During the corresponding span -- the 2009-14 drafts -- the Buffs only have had 10 total players selected, with only two first-round picks (OT Nate Solder and CB Jimmy Smith in 2011) and three overall in the top three rounds over that span.
WR Paul Richardson was the latest -- and the lone CU pick in last week's draft -- going in the second round to the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks.
Compare that with the Buffs' 23-season run of success from 1985-2007, which featured 18 bowl berths and only five losing seasons.
In the corresponding 23 drafts (1986-08), 90 total CU players were selected -- roughly four per draft -- with 11 first-round picks and 29 total selections in the top three rounds.
Times have most definitely changed -- and not for the better -- in Boulder.

Pro Bowls few, far between for Colorado college draft picks

Weston Richburg, Paul Richardson . . . welcome to the club.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Colorado State center (2nd round, 43rd overall, N.Y. Giants) and the University of Colorado wide receiver (2nd, 45th, Seattle Seahawks) on Friday night became the 306th and 307th players, respectively, from a Colorado college or university to be selected in the regular NFL Draft since the institution of the common draft in 1967.

CU, of course, easily boasts the most selections with 199, and is followed by CSU (75), Northern Colorado (9), Air Force (7), Adams State (5), CSU-Pueblo/Southern Colorado (4), Colorado Mesa/Mesa State (4), Colorado College (2), Fort Lewis (1) and Colorado Mines (1).

They also upped the number to 57 of Colorado products to be selected in the first two rounds since '67. Forty-eight of of those 57 high-round picks have hailed from CU, while CSU now has eight. UNC has the other in 2005 second-round pick Vincent Jackson.

But what would really separate Richburg and Richardson from the Centennial State pack is making the Pro Bowl.

Of the aforementioned 305 previous Colorado school draftees, only 19 (6.2 percent) have made it to the Pro Bowl. Former CSU running back Lawrence McCutcheon (3rd round, 1972, L.A. Rams) and CU center/guard Andre Gurode (2nd, 2002, Dallas Cowboys) top that pack with five Pro Bowl selections apiece.

Of the 74 CSU players previously drafted, only three -- McCutcheon, DE Al Baker (2nd, '78, Detroit Lions) and LB Joey Porter (3rd, '99, Pittsburgh Steelers) -- have earned Pro Bowl nods at the next level.

7 Denver Broncos Bar Bet-Settling Draft Facts

On the eve of the NFL's first May draft, here are seven Denver Bronco factoids, useful for impressing your friends, flaunting on Twitter and possibly winning a bar bet -- or seven.

Here goes . . .

• In their 54-year draft history, the Orange and Blue have selected seven Hall of Famers, but only two of them -- RB Floyd Little (first round, 1967) and TE Shannon Sharpe (seventh, '92) -- ever suited up for the Broncos. Four of the remaining five -- DT Merlin Olsen (first, '62), S Paul Krause (12th, '64), WR Bob Hayes (14th, '64) and LB Dick Butkus (second, '65) -- spurned the then-AFL upstarts to sign with the more established NFL, while the other (DT Curley Culp; second, '68) was traded away in training camp before ever playing a down for Denver.
• Thirteen players have played 170 or more games for the Broncos, but S Dennis Smith (184 games) is the only Denver first-round pick among the group.
• Speaking of lone first-round Broncos picks, LB John Mobley ('96) is the only one to hail from a non-Division I program in the Common Draft Era ('67- present) after starring for DII Kutztown (Pa.) State.
• Since '67, Florida, Houston and USC are the most common alma maters (12 apiece) for Denver draft picks.
• As for most popular positions, the Broncos have most frequently drafted running backs and linebackers (six apiece) in the Common Draft Era.
• Of the 64 wide receivers the Broncos have drafted in their history, only Vance Johnson (second, '85) and Brandon Marshall (fourth, '06) have recorded 300 or more catches while playing in the Mile High City. Johnson had 415 grabs in 11 seasons, while Marshall had 302 in his four years in Denver.
• We wrap things up by dropping some QB knowledge. The Broncos have drafted 35 quarterbacks in their history, but only Brian Griese (third, '98) and Jay Cutler (first, '06) have more career Bronco passing yards than Peyton Manning had in 2013 alone, when he threw for an NFL single-season record 5,477 yards. Griese had 11,763 yards in 53 games for the Broncos, while Cutler had 9,024 in 37 contests.

Careful, we've seen this before from the Colorado Rockies

Hey, I understand.

There's a lot to be excited about when it comes to your Colorado Rockies.

As of this morning, they're a full six games above .500 and in early contention in what looks to be a formidable NL West. Troy Tulowitzki is the reigning NL Player of the Month, Charlie Blackmon is one MLB's top come-ot-of-nowhere surprises and Justin Morneau and Jordan Lyles look like absolute steals of off-season additions.

But let's not get carried away.

It's still early, and the "it's a marathon, not a sprint" phrase gets thrown around an awful lot in spring MLB conversations, probably because there's a whole lot of truth to it.

Besides, we've seen this before from the Rocks.

Prior to this season's 16-12 April, the Rockies have emerged from the regular season's first month with a winning record seven times in their first 21 seasons.

But only once in those seven years has that hot start translated into a postseason finish. That came in the labor unrest-shortened 1995 campaign when the Boys in Purple finished April 4-1 en route to a 77-67 finish and a wild-card berth.

In fact, those seven above-.500 Aprils have only resulted in two above.-500 season finishes, with the last one coming a full 17 years ago in '97, when the Rockies started 17-7 and wound up 83-79.

Since then, Colorado's last five winning Aprils in 2001 (13-11), '03 (15-12), '06 (15-10), '11 (17-8) and '13 (16-11) have resulted in nary a winning season and, in fact, the club's final records in those campaigns was a combined 70 games under .500.

Flipping things around, the Rockies have had seven winning seasons in their history, but only two of those years -- the aforementioned '95 and '97 campaigns -- began with a winning record in April.

In the franchise's last two playoff seasons, '07 and '09, they got off to 8-12 and 10-16 starts, respectively, in April.

But what about the Rockies' torrid start at the plate, you ask? That's not likely to cool off as the season and weather heats up, especially with 2013 NL batting champ Michael Cuddyer having been sidelined and Carlos Gonzalez having been slumping for most of the early part of the season.

Hey, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Rocks stay atop the National League's offensive leaderboards, but, again, it's nothing new.

In their first 21 seasons, the Rockies have led the NL in batting average 11 times, but those 11 seasons have corresponded with only two postseason berths and five winning seasons.

Colorado also has led the NL in runs scored in six seasons, but only one of those years ('95) concluded in the postseason.
All that in mind, we'll label the Rocks' 2014 start encouraging, but it's far from unique or telling by any means.